Month: January 2025

A Bayesian Model of Later Life Mortality Trends and Implications for Longevity

Using a novel, flexible and easily interpretable dynamic Bayesian state space model, we analyze historic and future longevity trends across 18 high income countries over the last one hundred years and 16 large population emerging markets from 1950. Our results show the key driver of global life expectancy is now late-life mortality whose importance is …

A Bayesian Model of Later Life Mortality Trends and Implications for Longevity Read More »

A Bayesian Model of Later Life Mortality Trends and Implications for Longevity

Using a novel, flexible and easily interpretable dynamic Bayesian state space model, we analyze historic and future longevity trends across 18 high income countries over the last one hundred years and 16 large population emerging markets from 1950. Our results show the key driver of global life expectancy is now late-life mortality whose importance is …

A Bayesian Model of Later Life Mortality Trends and Implications for Longevity Read More »

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